Have COPs worked? Where COP31 picks up
COP31 does not start from zero. It continues 30 years of talks, some of which moved the world and some of which went nowhere. This is the short version: what the numbers say, the COPs that mattered, and the point each question on the table today has reached.
The short answer: better than before, not nearly enough
Expected warming by 2100 under the policies in place, in 2015 and in 2025. Real progress, but still far above 1.5°C, and almost unchanged since 2021.
Climate Action TrackerExpected warming if every country fully delivers its current national plan. With only today’s policies, 2.8°C.
UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025How much global greenhouse gas emissions grew in 2024. They have not started falling yet.
UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025The $100bn a year promised for 2020 was first reached in 2022.
OECDThe COPs that changed something
- 1992
Rio de JaneiroThe climate treaty is signed
The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change commits countries to avoid "dangerous" interference with the climate. It sets no numbers.
- 1997
COP3, KyotoThe first binding targets
The Kyoto Protocol sets emission cuts for rich countries only. The United States never ratifies it, and big developing economies have no targets.
- 2009
COP15, CopenhagenThe failed treaty
Talks on a new global deal collapse. What survives is a political accord and the promise of $100bn a year in finance by 2020.
- 2015
COP21, ParisEveryone in
The : keep warming well below 2°C and try for 1.5°C. Every country sets its own plan and must raise it every five years.
- 2018
COP24, KatowiceThe rulebook
Countries agree most of the rules for reporting and transparency under Paris.
- 2021
COP26, Glasgow1.5°C and coal
The first COP text to name coal, agreeing to "phase down" unabated coal power. The rules for carbon markets are agreed.
- 2022
COP27, Sharm el-SheikhA fund for loss and damage
After 30 years of pressure from vulnerable countries, a fund to help pay for climate damage is agreed.
- 2023
COP28, DubaiAway from fossil fuels
The first calls for "transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems", tripling renewables and doubling energy efficiency by 2030.
- 2024
COP29, BakuA new money goal
At least $300bn a year by 2035 from rich countries. Developing countries call it far too little. The carbon market rules are finished.
- 2025
COP30, BelémThe implementation COP
for , a and a pledge to triple adaptation finance. A roadmap away from fossil fuels stays outside the official text.
Where each COP31 question picks up
COP30 set up a two-year work programme on what rich countries owe. Bonn could not agree how to run it, so COP31 has to.AdaptingHow do we know if the world is protecting itself from climate impacts?
COP30 agreed 59 voluntary indicators. Bonn could not agree how to use them; COP31 picks up the unfinished text.WorkersHow do we protect workers and communities as the world moves off fossil fuels?
COP30 agreed a mechanism should exist. Bonn produced a list of possible elements; COP31 has to decide what it does and who runs it.Cutting emissionsShould countries keep their joint programme for cutting emissions faster?
The joint programme was set up to run until 2026. Bonn could not agree whether to keep it; COP31 decides.Carbon marketsCan a country pay another to cut emissions for it?
The rules are written. COP31 looks at how they work in practice.Loss and damageWho pays when a climate disaster has already happened?
The fund exists and has opened its first call. COP31 gives it guidance; the money is far short of the requests.Checking progressAre countries using the 2023 global check-up in their climate plans?
Each year countries check whether the 2023 stocktake shapes their plans. The next full stocktake ends in 2028.Climate plansShould there be clearer rules for what goes into national climate plans?
Common features for national plans have been postponed for years. The question is back on the agenda.